San Jose’s latest loss gave Minnesota a clear example of what to pressure: the Sharks fell behind early, allowed three power-play goals and never recovered against Los Angeles. The Wild arrive with a stronger defensive profile and points in six straight games, making them a substantial favorite Friday. But the scoring question is more complicated than whether Minnesota can exploit San Jose’s weaknesses. The Sharks have also struggled to score, and Yaroslav Askarov’s work before the Los Angeles game offers a reason to look beyond one ugly result.
The Sharks need fewer problems at once
According to AP’s report on ESPN, Los Angeles led 3–0 after the first period and converted three of five power plays in a 7–2 win Wednesday. Macklin Celebrini and Ivar Stenberg scored San Jose’s goals on the man advantage. Special teams produced offense for the Sharks, but they couldn’t offset what San Jose gave up.
That was the Sharks’ third straight loss. They’ve scored two goals or fewer in four of their last five games, so a cleaner defensive effort would address only part of the problem. San Jose needs enough offense to avoid depending on its goalie to make every small lead or tie hold up.
Askarov is projected to start, though he isn’t confirmed. Across his latest five appearances, all starts, he allowed seven goals in Los Angeles after allowing two or fewer in each of the previous four. That gives the Sharks some reason to expect a more competitive defensive effort than Wednesday’s score suggests, provided they give him more help on the penalty kill.
Minnesota has more ways to control the matchup
The Wild beat Philadelphia 4–2 Tuesday after scoring twice in 31 seconds in the first period. Matt Boldy had a goal and an assist, Joel Eriksson Ek scored the eventual winner, and Jesper Wallstedt made 23 saves. AP reported via ESPN that the winning goal followed a clearing pass that struck a referee and created a 2-on-1. Minnesota built a lead, though that particular break offers little guide to how it will create chances Friday.
Minnesota is 5–0–1 over its six-game point streak, as AP noted, and has won seven of its last 10 games, compared with three for San Jose. Our team grades favor the Wild on both sides: B+ offense and B defense against the Sharks’ C offense and D defense. Those are broader reasons for Minnesota’s favorite role than the score of San Jose’s latest game alone.
DraftKings lists Minnesota at -258 on the moneyline and San Jose at +210. The Wild’s stronger results and grades give that price context, but identifying the stronger team doesn’t by itself establish value at a substantial favorite’s price. San Jose’s route to making the game difficult starts with avoiding the early deficit and penalty trouble that overwhelmed it Wednesday.
Wallstedt is Minnesota’s projected goalie, also unconfirmed. He has a .930 save percentage across his latest five appearances, all starts, and allowed two goals or fewer in four of them. The Wild’s defensive assessment also needs to account for Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon, who were listed on injured reserve in Thursday’s reports.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Sharks vs. Wild picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
The total asks how much offense San Jose can add
The total is 6.5 goals. Twelve of Minnesota’s 17 games this season have gone under their respective totals. The Wild’s recent wins also show how their case as a favorite can coexist with a quieter scoring night.
Their last two wins—4–2 at Philadelphia and 5–1 at Washington—each finished with six combined goals. Minnesota scored enough to win comfortably in both without either game reaching tonight’s 6.5 threshold. San Jose’s ability to add offense is therefore a separate question from whether the Wild can take control.
Our projections put Minnesota around 30 shots and San Jose around 26, with roughly three power-play opportunities apiece. That suggests more shot volume for the Wild, without establishing shot quality. San Jose’s recent scoring limits and Minnesota’s goalie performance pull against the high-scoring possibility suggested by the Sharks’ latest defensive collapse.
For San Jose, staying out of the box would remove one route to another lopsided loss. Generating offense would give Askarov some room to work if he starts. Minnesota has the stronger form and grades, but the total depends on how much scoring accompanies that advantage—not just which team spends more time in control.
We break down every matchup
The NHL betting board has current odds and sharp picks for the rest of Friday’s matchups.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.