Bijan Robinson didn’t break a long run against San Francisco. His longest carry went for 12 yards, yet he still finished with 122 from scrimmage in an Atlanta win. If the Falcons upset Kansas City, that’s one way to picture the offense working against a front that has been tough to run on.
The other question is how Kansas City responds. If Atlanta stays ahead long enough to make the Chiefs throw, Patrick Mahomes’s attempts give you a way to follow that idea even if he finishes with modest yardage.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson Over 121.5 rushing + receiving yards |
−112 | 81.8% 9 of 11 ATL wins |
53.8% 14 of 26 games |
| Patrick Mahomes Over 32.5 pass attempts |
−125 | 80.0% 8 of 10 KC losses |
63.6% 14 of 22 games |
Bijan Robinson · Over 121.5 rushing plus receiving yards
Robinson had 63 rushing yards and 59 receiving yards against the 49ers. A 19-yard gain on a screen helped Atlanta get him into space. Those receiving yards matter against Kansas City, which has allowed 3.6 yards per carry. Atlanta can keep calling his number when the runs are going for three or four yards at a time.
That San Francisco game cleared the line by the smallest possible margin. Robinson had 76 rushing yards without a catch at Tampa Bay and then piled up 147 combined against Cincinnati, another loss. The difference for this prop is whether Atlanta keeps finding ways to get him touches, even after the first few drives.
Patrick Mahomes · Over 32.5 pass attempts
Mahomes threw 33 times in Seattle and 41 times at Denver, Kansas City’s two losses this year. Seattle held the ball for nearly 36 minutes, and Kansas City had only eight drives. Mahomes still got a long fourth-quarter possession, but that game left him right at the 33 attempts needed here. A Falcons lead helps most if Kansas City still gets enough possessions to respond.
Kenneth Walker III is out, which puts more of the rushing workload on rookie Emmett Johnson. If Atlanta can get the Chiefs into passing downs, Mahomes has a path to 33. If Johnson finds room against a defense that has allowed at least 120 rushing yards in four of its last five games, Kansas City may be able to keep running even if the score is close.
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Which part of an Atlanta win are you backing?
Robinson’s combined yards fit a game where Atlanta can keep him involved even when the run is slow to develop. Mahomes’s attempts depend more on how soon the Falcons get ahead and how many drives Kansas City has left. A late Atlanta score can settle the result without giving Mahomes much time to add throws.
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