Bo Nix ran for 73 yards on seven carries in Denver’s win over Arizona. J.K. Dobbins finished the same afternoon with 23 yards on six carries. If your Broncos parlay picks start with another Denver win, those contrasting days are a useful reminder to choose the rushing requirement carefully.
This edition of Side & Support Parlay Plays compares Dobbins over 30.5 rushing yards, Nix reaching four carries and Patrick Mahomes under 1.5 passing touchdowns. Denver is 5–2 after three straight wins; Kansas City is 5–1 after losing at Seattle. The two rushing options give you different ways to approach Denver’s offense, while Mahomes’ passing-score under offers a route on the other side.
Broncos parlay picks: compare the target and the timeframe
Dobbins’ and Mahomes’ records cover August 1, 2025 through October 31, 2026 with their current clubs, including playoff games where applicable. Nix’s selected record starts August 1, 2026, covering this season. Dobbins and Nix are measured in Denver wins; Mahomes is measured in Kansas City losses. Each all-game record uses the same dates, club and participation rule: a carry for a rushing option or a pass attempt for Mahomes. These are individual DraftKings price snapshots, and offers can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins Over 30.5 rushing yards Last season + this season |
−108 | 92.3% 12 of 13 DEN wins |
94.1% 16 of 17 appearances |
| Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing TDs Last season + this season |
−209 | 88.9% 8 of 9 KC losses |
55.0% 11 of 20 appearances |
| Bo Nix 4+ carries This season |
−211 | 100.0% 5 of 5 DEN wins |
71.4% 5 of 7 appearances |
Nix’s five winning games and Kansas City’s one loss this season are small recent samples. The player sections explain where the older games reinforce the case and where they challenge it.
J.K. Dobbins: over 30.5 rushing yards
Dobbins’ latest game is the exception you need to start with. He had six carries for 23 yards and a rushing touchdown in the 30–16 win at Arizona. Denver won comfortably, but that didn’t deliver the selected yardage target. The touchdown wouldn’t have rescued a rushing-yards bet.
His other winning games this season brought 36 yards against Jacksonville, 49 against the Rams, 68 against the Chargers and 41 against Seattle. His 36 yards in the loss at Kansas City and 40 at San Francisco also show why this is a low target to compare across different results. Over 30.5 was −108. It leaves more room for a modest afternoon than 40 yards at +169, which would have missed the Jacksonville win as well as Arizona. Across the two-season sample, 40 landed in 11 of 13 Denver wins, compared with 12 at the selected line.
The actual ladder also offered 30 or more yards at −117. That had the same historical counts as over 30.5, but the bets aren’t identical: a future 30-yard finish would clear the milestone and miss the main line. Twenty or more yards cost −276 and would have retained the Arizona game, clearing in all 13 Denver wins in this sample. That’s the extra cushion the heavier price buys.
The current backfield needs attention, too. Denver has placed RJ Harvey on injured reserve and lists Jonah Coleman behind Dobbins. That changes the group around him without establishing his next carry total. Dobbins is the listed RB1, but last week’s six attempts show why a low yardage target still needs enough opportunities. His longer Denver record is strong at this line; the most recent winning performance is a clear reason to temper it.
Patrick Mahomes: under 1.5 passing touchdowns
This option allows Mahomes to throw one touchdown pass. You don’t need Kansas City to repeat its three-point performance at Seattle, where he threw for 165 yards on 33 attempts without a passing touchdown. At −209, you’re paying for a cap on scoring throws rather than requiring a complete passing-touchdown shutout.
The historical losing-game record is much stronger than the all-game record, but eight of those nine losses came last season. Seattle is Kansas City’s only defeat this season. Mahomes also threw no passing touchdowns in the 22–6 win over the Chargers, so the under hasn’t been exclusive to losses.
The earlier meeting with Denver pushes against an easy defensive story. Mahomes threw two touchdown passes as Kansas City won 31–10. Last Thanksgiving’s loss at Dallas is the larger counterexample: four passing touchdowns on 261 yards and 34 attempts, despite the Chiefs falling 31–28. A Denver win scenario doesn’t, by itself, rule out several Kansas City passing scores.
Denver will be without safety Talanoa Hufanga, and Brandon Jones is questionable. Those personnel concerns belong beside the older losing-game pattern. This is a way to express a view that Denver can limit the scoring throws; the record doesn’t establish that the current secondary will do it. The market counts passing touchdowns only, so a Mahomes rushing score wouldn’t add to that total.
Bo Nix: 4+ carries
Nix’s 73 rushing yards against Arizona are the eye-catching number, but four carries asks a different question. His previous two wins brought four attempts for ten yards against the Chargers and four for just two yards against Seattle. He also had four carries for seven yards in the Rams win. Those afternoons would all clear the selected carry target without coming close to repeating the Arizona yardage.
Four or more carries was −211. The main over-4.5 offer at −101 asks for at least five. Only two of Denver’s five wins this season supplied five carries, compared with all five at four. The three wins that finished on exactly four attempts explain much of the price tradeoff. The remaining winning carry counts were five against Jacksonville and seven against Arizona.
This is a current-season pattern, not a longstanding requirement for a Broncos win. Across last season and this one, Nix reached four carries in 14 of 20 Denver wins—70.0%—and 16 of 25 appearances overall. Last season alone it was nine of 15 wins and 11 of 18 appearances. Those older records are substantially weaker than the five-game winning record in the table.
His three-carry game in last December’s win over Las Vegas makes the limitation concrete. He rushed for 15 yards and a touchdown, yet would still have missed four carries. This season’s two losses brought three carries at Kansas City and two at San Francisco. The recent contrast is worth considering, but seven appearances don’t tell us that every future Denver win will give Nix four rushing opportunities.
Choose the Denver rushing requirement you want
Dobbins’ line comes with the longer Denver history, challenged by a very recent six-carry miss. Nix’s carry target fits this season’s winning games, with a weaker older record and several wins landing exactly on four. Decide whether you prefer a modest running-back yardage target or the quarterback’s opportunities; neither needs the other player’s latest performance to repeat.
You can then consider Mahomes’ passing-score under separately. Nix and Dobbins share Denver’s rushing opportunities. If combining any options with Denver to win, use the sportsbook’s actual same-game parlay quote; related legs may affect the price, and the individual records don’t establish combined odds or a joint success rate.
Follow the live Chiefs–Broncos matchup for the current game market, or explore more NFL picks and analysis.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.