Miami’s only win came against the Jets, when Ollie Gordon II ran 25 times and the Dolphins closed out a three-point game. Now Kyle McCord is set for his first NFL start. A close game in Indianapolis would give Miami another chance to lean on its backfield.
If you see a Dolphins win, Gordon’s carry count gives you a way to look at how Miami keeps the game manageable. For Indianapolis, Daniel Jones’ touchdown line is about how the Colts finish drives. Tyler Warren’s yardage is about what Miami allows underneath.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Gordon II 16+ rushing attempts |
−258 | 100.0% 1 of 1 MIA wins |
83.3% 5 of 6 games |
| Daniel Jones Under 1.5 passing TDs |
−238 | 83.3% 10 of 12 IND losses |
72.7% 16 of 22 games |
| Tyler Warren Under 45.5 receiving yards |
−109 | 85.7% 12 of 14 IND losses |
62.5% 15 of 24 games |
Ollie Gordon II · 16+ rushing attempts
Gordon had 25 carries for 103 yards against the Jets. That’s the only Miami win in this sample. The wider sample starts when De’Von Achane was hurt. Gordon reached 16 carries in five of those six games, including exactly 16 against Detroit even though he averaged just 3.4 yards per carry.
The 16-carry alternate costs more than the 18-carry line and buys room for a game like Detroit. At Minnesota, Gordon had 100 yards on just nine carries, so a couple of big runs can leave him well short on attempts. Miami also has to manage its first game with McCord and without starting center Aaron Brewer.
Daniel Jones · Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Jones threw for 267 yards without a touchdown pass in the loss at Pittsburgh. He also went without a passing score in the 30-point win over Washington. He’s stayed under two in every game this season, so the case here is about how Indianapolis finishes drives. The Colts can score on the ground and leave this line under.
Miami held Jared Goff without a passing touchdown last week, but Indianapolis will be working with a changed group of receivers. If the new lineup finds space against Miami near the goal line, a second touchdown pass can spoil the short-priced under.
Tyler Warren · Under 45.5 receiving yards
Warren had four catches in each of Indianapolis’ last two losses. They went for 18 yards at Jacksonville and 44 against Dallas. In a Miami win where Warren is still getting the ball, the useful question is how much room the Dolphins give him after the catch.
Warren can break this line even if the Colts fall behind. He had 83 yards at Pittsburgh, and the Colts traded Keenan Allen and Josh Downs this week. Alec Pierce is still on injured reserve. A larger share of the passing game could make Warren’s old loss split harder to repeat.
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Where would a Dolphins win come from?
Gordon is the direct option if you expect Miami to stay close enough to keep handing him the ball. Jones’ under is about how Indianapolis scores if it reaches the red zone. Warren’s under depends on Miami limiting gains to its opponent’s tight end even if he’s getting a regular share of the throws.
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