CFB matchup
09/07/20267:30 PMBobby Bowden Field at Doak S. Campbell StadiumTallahassee, FL

SMU6 – 1vsFlorida State3 – 4

Sharp side
🏠 Florida State +3
Model value
Model trendFlorida State Seminoles games: +2.64 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Florida State Seminoles went 4–1–1 (80.0%, excluding pushes) this season, with 1 push, for an estimated profit of 2.64 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
↓ Under 54.5
Model value
Model trendSMU Mustangs games: +1.70 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring SMU Mustangs went 4–2 (66.7%) this season, for an estimated profit of 1.70 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
SMU Mustangs25.543.2%
Florida State Seminoles27.956.8%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
SMU MustangsB+BB+
Florida State SeminolesB+B+B+
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee at blue hourSMU vs. Florida State Preview: Labor Day Test at DoakNo. 19 SMU brings the stronger team grades to Tallahassee, but Florida State's balanced opener and home field make Monday night's Labor Day matchup more complicated than the ranking suggests.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-148-3.0 (-105)
FSU+124+3.0 (-115)
Total 54.5Over -112Under -108
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-150-3.0 (-108)
FSU+125+3.0 (-110)
Total 54.5Over -112Under -105
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-150-2.5 (-122)
FSU+120+2.5 (+100)
Total 54.5Over -114Under -108
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-148-3.0 (-106)
FSU+126+3.0 (-114)
Total 54.5Over -116Under -103
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-145-3.0 (+100)
FSU+125+3.0 (-120)
Total 55.0Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-150-2.5 (-124)
FSU+125+2.5 (+102)
Total 54.5Over -115Under -105
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-150-3.5 (+105)
FSU+125+3.5 (-125)
Total 54.5Over -115Under -105
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
SMU-155-3.5 (+100)
FSU+135+3.5 (-120)
Total 54.5Over -115Under -105
Recent form

Last 10 games

SMU Mustangs

Overall7–3–0W–L–TATS6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
1/2/26vs ARIZW 24–19W -2.5U 55.5
11/29/25@ CALL 35–38L -13.5O 52.5
11/22/25vs LOUW 38–6W -3.5U 50.5
11/8/25@ BCW 45–13W -10.5O 54.5
11/1/25vs MIAW 26–20W +6.5U 46.5
10/25/25@ WAKEL 12–13L -5.5U 52.5
10/18/25@ CLEMW 35–24W +5.5O 49.5
10/11/25vs STANW 34–10W -19.5U 55.5
10/4/25vs SYRW 31–18L -17.5U 56.5
9/20/25@ TCUL 24–35L +6.5U 63.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Florida State Seminoles

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS2–8–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
8/29/26vs NMSUW 34–17L -30.5U 53.5
11/29/25@ FLAL 21–40L -1.5O 48.5
11/21/25@ NCSUL 11–21L -6.5U 59.5
11/15/25vs VTW 34–14W -13.5U 53.5
11/8/25@ CLEML 10–24L +1.5U 57.5
11/1/25vs WAKEW 42–7W -12.5U 50.5
10/18/25@ STANL 13–20L -17.5U 55.5
10/11/25vs PITTL 31–34L -11.5O 57.5
10/4/25vs MIAL 22–28L +2.5U 54.5
9/26/25@ UVAL 38–46L -6.5O 60.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for SMU and Florida State
Statistic
375.1 (414.7)Total Yards444.1 (452.1)
268.0 (284.1)Passing Yards247.2 (247.5)
24.2 (24.3)Pass Completions17.6 (17.5)
37.5 (37.1)Pass Attempts30.6 (30.2)
107.1 (130.6)Rushing Yards196.9 (204.5)
28.9 (29.5)Rushing Attempts40.0 (40.5)
18.1 (20.1)First Downs23.4 (23.7)



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