CFB matchup

09/12/20263:30 PMKroger FieldLexington, KY

Alabama6 – 2vsKentucky7 – 1

Sharp side

✈️ Alabama -8.5

Model value

Model trendAlabama Crimson Tide games: +2.71 units on model side bets during the current streak

Model side bets in games featuring Alabama Crimson Tide are on a 3-bet win streak, for an estimated profit of 2.71 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

↓ Under 46.5

Model value

Model trendKentucky Wildcats games: +0.85 units on model total bets rated 4 stars or better in the past month

Model total bets rated 4 stars or better in games featuring Kentucky Wildcats went 2–1 (66.7%) in the past month, for an estimated profit of 0.85 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Alabama Crimson Tide	27.0	79.1%
Kentucky Wildcats	15.7	20.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Alabama Crimson Tide	A	A+	A
Kentucky Wildcats	B+	B+	B+

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Kroger Field in Lexington, with abstracted figures and unbranded surfaces.

Alabama vs. Kentucky Preview: A 10-Point Test in LexingtonAlabama visits Kentucky as a 10-point favorite after both teams opened with comfortable wins. Here’s how the spread, total and our team projections frame the matchup.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-360-8.5 (-108)

UK+285+8.5 (-112)

Total 46.5Over -115Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-350-8.5 (-105)

UK+290+8.5 (-105)

Total 47.5Over -105Under -112

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-435-10.0 (+100)

UK+285+10.0 (-122)

Total 47.5Over -110Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-390-9.5 (-110)

UK+300+9.5 (-109)

Total 47.5Over -108Under -113

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-370-9.0 (-110)

UK+305+9.0 (-110)

Total 47.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-350-9.5 (-105)

UK+275+9.5 (-115)

Total 47.5Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-400-8.5 (-110)

UK+300+8.5 (-110)

Total 47.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

ALA-360-9.5 (-105)

UK+280+9.5 (-115)

Total 47.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 10 games

Alabama Crimson Tide

Overall7–3–0W–L–TATS6–4–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
9/5/26	vs ECU	W 48–10	W -28.5	O 52.5
1/1/26	vs IU	L 3–38	L +7.5	U 46.5
12/19/25	@ OU	W 34–24	W +2.5	O 42.5
12/6/25	vs UGA	L 7–28	L +1.5	U 48.5
11/29/25	@ AUB	W 27–20	W -6.5	U 48.5
11/22/25	vs EIU	W 56–0	W -54.5	U 59.5
11/15/25	vs OU	L 21–23	L -6.5	U 46.5
11/8/25	vs LSU	W 20–9	W -10.5	U 49.5
10/25/25	@ SC	W 29–22	L -12.5	O 47.5
10/18/25	vs TENN	W 37–20	W -8.5	U 60.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Kentucky Wildcats

Overall4–6–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
9/5/26	vs YSU	W 45–13	W -22.5	U 61.5
11/29/25	@ LOU	L 0–41	L -1.5	U 45.5
11/22/25	@ VAN	L 17–45	L +6.5	O 53.5
11/15/25	vs TNTC	W 42–10	W -22.5	U 52.5
11/8/25	vs FLA	W 38–7	W +5.5	O 44.5
11/1/25	@ AUB	W 10–3	W +11.5	U 44.5
10/25/25	vs TENN	L 34–56	L +7.5	O 54.5
10/18/25	vs TEX	L 13–16	W +13.5	U 45.5
10/4/25	@ UGA	L 14–35	L +19.5	U 49.5
9/27/25	@ SC	L 13–35	L +6.5	O 46.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Alabama and Kentucky
	Statistic
353.3 (362.7)	Total Yards	294.3 (357.7)
253.7 (256.3)	Passing Yards	199.4 (222.9)
22.2 (22.1)	Pass Completions	20.5 (20.1)
34.5 (34.2)	Pass Attempts	32.5 (30.8)
99.5 (106.4)	Rushing Yards	95.0 (134.8)
31.3 (32.1)	Rushing Attempts	32.5 (35.1)
19.9 (20.4)	First Downs	18.2 (20.5)