NFL matchup

09/14/20268:15 PMArrowhead StadiumKansas City, MO

Broncos5 – 2vsChiefs5 – 1

Sharp side

🏠 Chiefs -2.5

Model value

Model trendDenver Broncos games: +2.56 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Denver Broncos went 5–2 (71.4%) this season, for an estimated profit of 2.56 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

↑ Over 42.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Denver Broncos	20.5	38.9%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.6	61.1%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Denver Broncos	B	A+	A-
Kansas City Chiefs	B	B+	B+

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with anonymous figures and unbranded venue surfaces.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Preview: Short Spread, Conflicting SignalsKansas City is a short home favorite over Denver in Week 1, with recent results and our offensive projections pointing in different directions.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+110+2.5 (-112)

KC-130-2.5 (-108)

Total 42.5Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+105+2.0 (-108)

KC-125-2.0 (-102)

Total 42.5Over -112Under -108

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+106+2.0 (-110)

KC-129-2.0 (-110)

Total 42.5Over -114Under -106

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+113+2.5 (-115)

KC-133-2.5 (-104)

Total 42.5Over -112Under -108

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+112+2.0 (-110)

KC-132-2.0 (-110)

Total 42.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+112+2.5 (-115)

KC-132-2.5 (-104)

Total 42.5Over -112Under -108

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+115+2.0 (-110)

KC-135-2.0 (-110)

Total 43.0Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+110+1.5 (-105)

KC-130-1.5 (-115)

Total 42.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Denver Broncos

Overall8–2–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–5–0O–U–P · 9/10 graded

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/25/26	vs NE	L 7–10	W +3.5	U 43.5
1/17/26	vs BUF	W 33–30	W -1.5	O 45.5
1/4/26	vs LAC	W 19–3	W -15.5	U 37.5
12/25/25	@ KC	W 20–13	L -13.5	U 37.5
12/21/25	vs JAX	L 20–34	L -3.5	O 46.5
12/14/25	vs GB	W 34–26	W +1.5	O 42.5
12/7/25	@ LV	W 24–17	L -8.5	O 40.5
11/30/25	@ WSH	W 27–26	L -6.5	—
11/16/25	vs KC	W 22–19	W +4.5	U 45.5
11/6/25	vs LV	W 10–7	L -9.5	U 41.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Kansas City Chiefs

Overall2–8–0W–L–TATS2–7–0W–L–P · 9/10 gradedO/U1–9–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/4/26	@ LV	L 12–14	L -3.5	U 35.5
12/25/25	vs DEN	L 13–20	W +13.5	U 37.5
12/21/25	@ TEN	L 9–26	L -3.5	U 37.5
12/14/25	vs LAC	L 13–16	L -5.5	U 41.5
12/7/25	vs HOU	L 10–20	L -4.5	U 41.5
11/27/25	@ DAL	L 28–31	—	O 53.5
11/23/25	vs IND	W 23–20	L -4.5	U 49.5
11/16/25	@ DEN	L 19–22	L -4.5	U 45.5
11/2/25	@ BUF	L 21–28	L -2.5	U 53.5
10/27/25	vs WSH	W 28–7	W -11.5	U 48.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Broncos and Chiefs
	Statistic
315.3 (335.4)	Total Yards	342.8 (319.0)
208.6 (223.4)	Passing Yards	229.7 (211.9)
21.9 (22.6)	Pass Completions	22.3 (21.2)
35.3 (36.1)	Pass Attempts	34.8 (34.1)
106.7 (112.0)	Rushing Yards	113.1 (107.1)
26.0 (26.2)	Rushing Attempts	26.9 (25.8)
17.9 (19.3)	First Downs	21.5 (19.9)