NBA matchup
10/24/20269:00 PMBall ArenaDenver, CO

Pelicans1 – 4vsNuggets2 – 2

Sharp side
✈️ Pelicans +11.5
Model value
Model trendNew Orleans Pelicans games: +0.64 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring New Orleans Pelicans went 3–2 (60.0%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.64 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
↑ Over 239.5
Model value
Model trendNew Orleans Pelicans games: +0.78 units on model total bets rated 3 stars or better this season

Model total bets rated 3 stars or better in games featuring New Orleans Pelicans went 2–1 (66.7%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.78 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New Orleans Pelicans125.035.6%
Denver Nuggets129.964.4%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
New Orleans PelicansA-D+B-
Denver NuggetsA-C+B
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Ball Arena in Denver, with abstracted signage and anonymous figures.Pelicans vs. Nuggets: How much of a Denver rebound is priced in?Denver is an 11.5-point favorite after scoring just 84 in its opener. New Orleans brings a productive attack, defensive concerns and a knee injury to starting center Yves Missi.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+370+11.5 (-115)
DEN-485-11.5 (-105)
Total 239.5Over -110Under -110
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+375+11.5 (-115)
DEN-500-11.5 (-105)
Total 239.5Over -110Under -110
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+340+11.5 (-112)
DEN-455-11.5 (-109)
Total 240.5Over -112Under -109
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+400+11.0 (-110)
DEN-550-11.0 (-110)
Total 239.5Over -110Under -105
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+385+11.5 (-110)
DEN-485-11.5 (-110)
Total 240.0Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+385+11.5 (-115)
DEN-500-11.5 (-105)
Total 239.5Over -110Under -110
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+400+11.5 (-115)
DEN-550-11.5 (-105)
Total 240.5Over +100Under -115
Kalshi
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+400—
DEN-426—
Total —Over —Under —
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
NO+380+11.5 (-115)
DEN-550-11.5 (-105)
Total 240.5Over -105Under -115
Recent form

Last 10 games

New Orleans Pelicans

Overall1–9–0W–L–TATS3–7–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/23/26@ UTAHL 119–120W +1.5O 238.5
10/21/26vs INDL 120–123L +2.5O 238.5
4/12/26@ MINL 126–132L +3.5O 239.5
4/10/26@ BOSL 118–144L +18.5O 227.5
4/7/26vs UTAHW 156–137W -6.5O 242.5
4/5/26vs ORLL 108–112W +6.5U 236.5
4/3/26@ SACL 113–117L -6.5U 232.5
4/2/26@ PORL 106–118L +5.5U 235.5
3/29/26vs HOUL 102–134L +5.5O 226.5
3/27/26@ TORL 106–119L +8.5U 229.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Denver Nuggets

Overall5–5–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/22/26@ OKCL 84–96L +7.5U 236.5
4/30/26@ MINL 98–110L -7.5U 223.5
4/27/26vs MINW 125–113W -11.5O 226.5
4/25/26@ MINL 96–112L -1.5U 228.5
4/23/26@ MINL 96–113L +1.5U 231.5
4/20/26vs MINL 114–119L -7.5O 232.5
4/18/26vs MINW 116–105W -7.5U 232.5
4/12/26@ SAW 128–118W +9.5O 235.5
4/10/26vs OKCW 127–107W -2.5O 223.5
4/8/26vs MEMW 136–119L -23.5O 247.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Pelicans and Nuggets
Statistic
45.7 (42.0)Field Goals Made46.2 (42.8)
12.1 (11.1)Three-Pointers Made15.4 (13.8)
21.6 (20.3)Free Throws Made22.0 (21.1)
42.1 (43.9)Rebounds42.7 (43.7)
27.1 (25.1)Assists31.1 (28.5)
9.1 (8.9)Steals7.1 (6.9)
5.0 (5.2)Blocks4.0 (4.0)
12.8 (13.5)Turnovers12.3 (12.3)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

New Orleans Pelicans
Expected Starters
  • PGDejounte Murray
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12843.9%Under-16962.8%
    Total Assists5.5Over-13256.9%Under+10149.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds11.5Over+10249.5%Under-13557.4%
    Total Points16.5Over-11453.3%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points and Assists22.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points and Rebounds21.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists27.5Over-12455.4%Under-10651.5%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
    Total Steals1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
  • SGJeremiah Fears
    Player props7 markets
    Total Assists2.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
    Total Points11.5Over-11954.3%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points and Assists14.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds14.5Over-13056.5%Under-10150.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists17.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-17163.1%Under+13043.5%
  • SFTrey Murphy III
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over+11346.9%Under-14959.8%
    Total Assists2.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds7.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
    Total Points16.5Over-11252.8%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Assists19.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points and Rebounds21.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists24.5Over-11453.3%Under-11553.5%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over+11945.7%Under-15761.1%
    Total Steals0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17636.2%
  • PFZion Williamson
    Player props9 markets
    Total Assists2.5Over-14559.2%Under+11047.6%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
    Total Blocks0.5Over+14540.8%Under-19466.0%
    Total Points18.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%
    Total Points and Assists21.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds23.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists26.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over+10050.0%Under-13256.9%
    Total Steals0.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
  • CYves Missi
Relevant Bench
  • CDerik Queen
    Player props8 markets
    Total Assists3.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds10.5Over-12154.8%Under-10851.9%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
    Total Points11.5Over-11553.5%Under-11152.6%
    Total Points and Assists15.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds19.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists22.5Over-11954.3%Under-11052.4%
    Total Rebounds7.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
Denver Nuggets
Expected Starters
  • PGJamal Murray
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-14459.0%Under+10947.8%
    Total Assists6.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds11.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
    Total Points23.5Over-11553.5%Under-11152.6%
    Total Points and Assists30.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points and Rebounds28.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists35.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
    Total Steals0.5Over-21368.1%Under+15838.8%
  • SGChristian Braun
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15160.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds6.5Over-13557.4%Under+10349.3%
    Total Points12.5Over+10149.8%Under-12956.3%
    Total Points and Assists14.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists19.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Steals0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13842.0%
  • SFCameron Johnson
  • PFAaron Gordon
    Player props11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
    Total Assists2.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-14158.5%Under+10748.3%
    Total Blocks0.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%
    Total Points16.5Over-10551.2%Under-12154.8%
    Total Points and Assists19.5Over-10751.7%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points and Rebounds22.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists25.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over+11346.9%Under-14859.7%
    Total Steals0.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
    Total Steals and Blocks1.5Over+16637.6%Under-22469.1%
  • CNikola Jokic
    Player props11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10149.8%
    Total Assists10.5Over+10349.3%Under-13557.4%
    Total Assists and Rebounds23.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
    Total Points26.5Over-11252.8%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Assists37.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Points and Rebounds39.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists50.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
    Total Rebounds12.5Over-11954.3%Under-11052.4%
    Total Steals1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
    Total Steals and Blocks2.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Relevant Bench
  • FDeMar DeRozan
    Player props7 markets
    Total Assists2.5Over-16862.7%Under+12744.1%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-14859.7%Under+11247.2%
    Total Points15.5Over-12355.2%Under-10451.0%
    Total Points and Assists19.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points and Rebounds18.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists22.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-15460.6%Under+11746.1%


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