NBA matchup
10/26/20267:30 PMKaseya CenterMiami, FL

Mavericks4 – 2vsHeat2 – 4

Sharp side
🏠 Heat -7.5
Model value
Model trendMiami Heat games: +1.54 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Miami Heat went 4–2 (66.7%) this season, for an estimated profit of 1.54 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
↑ Over 240.5
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Dallas Mavericks111.36.9%
Miami Heat131.093.1%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
Dallas MavericksCC-C-
Miami HeatA-CB
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Kaseya Center in Miami, with abstracted figures and unbranded surfaces.Winless Miami faces a bigger test than just beating DallasMiami is an 8.5-point favorite despite an 0-3 start. Its offensive upside helps explain that gap, but shaky early defense and Cooper Flagg’s availability complicate the matchup.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+230+7.5 (-110)
MIA-285-7.5 (-110)
Total 240.5Over -108Under -112
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+225+7.5 (-110)
MIA-285-7.5 (-110)
Total 240.5Over -105Under -115
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+235+7.5 (-106)
MIA-295-7.5 (-115)
Total 240.5Over -112Under -109
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+215+7.5 (-115)
MIA-267-7.5 (-105)
Total 240.5Over -110Under -110
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+220+7.5 (-110)
MIA-260-7.5 (-110)
Total 239.5Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+220+7.5 (-108)
MIA-270-7.5 (-110)
Total 240.5Over -105Under -114
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+230+7.5 (+100)
MIA-275-7.5 (-120)
Total 241.5Over +100Under -115
Kalshi
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+245—
MIA-257—
Total —Over —Under —
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
DAL+220+7.5 (-110)
MIA-270-7.5 (-110)
Total 240.5Over -110Under -110
Recent form

Last 10 games

Dallas Mavericks

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/24/26vs SAL 106–122L +14.5U 229.5
10/23/26@ INDW 121–105W +7.5U 241.5
10/21/26@ HOUL 110–128L +9.5O 230.5
4/12/26vs CHIW 149–128W -5.5O 249.5
4/10/26@ SAL 120–139L +18.5O 236.5
4/8/26@ PHXL 107–112W +12.5U 234.5
4/7/26@ LACL 103–116L +11.5U 235.5
4/5/26vs LALW 134–128W +1.5O 234.5
4/3/26vs ORLL 127–138L +6.5O 239.5
3/31/26@ MILL 99–123L -2.5U 231.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Miami Heat

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS3–7–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/24/26@ CHAL 110–115L -4.5U 227.5
10/23/26vs DETL 111–128L +2.5O 235.5
10/21/26vs MINL 106–131L -1.5U 240.5
4/14/26@ CHAL 126–127W +5.5O 228.5
4/12/26vs ATLW 143–117W -10.5O 239.5
4/10/26@ WSHW 140–117W -15.5O 243.5
4/9/26@ TORL 114–128L +4.5O 236.5
4/7/26@ TORL 95–121L +2.5U 240.5
4/4/26vs WSHW 152–136L -18.5O 245.5
4/1/26vs BOSL 129–147L +4.5O 229.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Mavericks and Heat
Statistic
40.9 (42.1)Field Goals Made47.0 (43.4)
10.6 (11.0)Three-Pointers Made15.3 (13.6)
18.9 (19.2)Free Throws Made21.7 (19.8)
43.4 (44.6)Rebounds47.2 (45.9)
24.5 (25.4)Assists31.6 (28.8)
7.4 (7.6)Steals9.1 (8.5)
4.8 (5.3)Blocks4.5 (4.3)
14.1 (14.0)Turnovers12.2 (13.0)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Dallas Mavericks
Expected Starters
  • PGKyrie Irving
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over+11147.4%Under-14659.3%
    Total Assists4.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
    Total Assists and Rebounds7.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points20.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Assists24.5Over-12455.4%Under-10651.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds24.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists28.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Steals0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
  • SGMax Christie
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%
    Total Assists2.5Over+13442.7%Under-17864.0%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points11.5Over-11152.6%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points and Assists13.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points and Rebounds14.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists17.5Over-10751.7%Under-12255.0%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
  • SFCooper Flagg
    Player props11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18564.9%
    Total Assists5.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds11.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
    Total Points21.5Over-11954.3%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points and Assists27.5Over-11453.3%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds28.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists33.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over-15360.5%Under+11646.3%
    Total Steals0.5Over-23870.4%Under+17636.2%
    Total Steals and Blocks1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
  • PFP.J. Washington
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
    Total Assists1.5Over-16362.0%Under+12444.6%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Points13.5Over-11753.9%Under-10851.9%
    Total Points and Assists15.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds20.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists22.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
  • CDaniel Gafford
    Player props8 markets
    Total Assists1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17336.6%
    Total Points8.5Over-11353.1%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points and Assists10.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds15.5Over-12255.0%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists17.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over-12655.8%Under-10451.0%
Relevant Bench
  • FZaccharie Risacher
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18164.4%
    Total Assists1.5Over+14441.0%Under-19165.6%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-11453.3%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points10.5Over-10150.2%Under-12655.8%
    Total Points and Assists11.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds14.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists15.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over+10947.8%Under-14459.0%
Miami Heat
Expected Starters
  • PGDavion Mitchell
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11945.7%Under-15761.1%
    Total Assists7.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds9.5Over-13056.5%Under-10150.2%
    Total Points10.5Over-12956.3%Under+10149.8%
    Total Points and Assists18.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds13.5Over-12054.5%Under-10952.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists21.5Over-10551.2%Under-12555.6%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Steals0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
  • SGKlay Thompson
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-12555.6%Under-10551.2%
    Total Assists1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds3.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points10.5Over-11353.1%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points and Assists11.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-12154.8%Under-10851.9%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists14.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over+12145.2%Under-16061.5%
  • SFAndrew Wiggins
    Player props11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11753.9%
    Total Assists1.5Over-16662.4%Under+12644.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-15460.6%Under+11746.1%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
    Total Points12.5Over-10150.2%Under-12755.9%
    Total Points and Assists14.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds16.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists18.5Over-10851.9%Under-12154.8%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
    Total Steals0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
    Total Steals and Blocks1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
  • PFGiannis Antetokounmpo
    Player props11 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over+15738.9%Under-21067.7%
    Total Assists5.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds17.5Over-10551.2%Under-12555.6%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-14659.3%Under+11047.6%
    Total Points29.5Over-12455.4%Under-10350.7%
    Total Points and Assists36.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds41.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists47.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Rebounds11.5Over+10349.3%Under-13557.4%
    Total Steals0.5Over-21868.6%Under+16238.2%
    Total Steals and Blocks1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10748.3%
  • CBam Adebayo
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
    Total Assists3.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Assists and Rebounds13.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points17.5Over-11152.6%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Assists21.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds27.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists31.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Rebounds9.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
    Total Steals1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15660.9%
Relevant Bench
  • FBobby Portis
    Player props4 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+10548.8%Under-13858.0%
    Total Points11.5Over-10651.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-11854.1%Under-11152.6%
    Total Rebounds6.5Over+11147.4%Under-14659.3%
  • FPelle Larsson
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
    Total Assists3.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
    Total Assists and Rebounds6.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points10.5Over-10751.7%Under-11954.3%
    Total Points and Assists13.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
    Total Points and Rebounds13.5Over-12956.3%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists17.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over-10150.2%Under-13056.5%
  • FTim Hardaway Jr.
    Player props4 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-14358.8%Under+10947.8%
    Total Points8.5Over+10050.0%Under-12755.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds10.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over+13442.7%Under-17763.9%


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