NHL matchup

11/07/20268:00 PMXcel Energy CenterSaint Paul, MN

Lightning10 – 3 – 2vsWild12 – 3 – 3

Sharp side

Model value

Model trendTampa Bay Lightning games: +0.04 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Tampa Bay Lightning went 8–7 (53.3%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.04 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

Unlock pick

Model value

Model trendMinnesota Wild games: +1.45 units on model total bets in the past month

Model total bets in games featuring Minnesota Wild went 9–6 (60.0%) in the past month, for an estimated profit of 1.45 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Skaters	Goalie	Overall
Tampa Bay Lightning	A-	A-	A-
Minnesota Wild	B+	B	B

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Xcel Energy Center in Saint Paul, with abstract figures and unmarked surfaces.

Lightning vs. Wild preview: A goalie change tests Minnesota’s low-scoring trendMinnesota’s under trend meets a different goalie assignment as Calvin Pickard faces Tampa Bay following the Wild’s Friday win.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

TB-142-1.5 (+180)

MIN+120+1.5 (-218)

Total 6.5Over +100Under -120

Recent form

Last 3 games

Tampa Bay Lightning

Overall2–1–0W–L–TPuck Line2–1–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
11/5/26	vs CHI	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 6.5
11/3/26	vs DET	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 6.5
10/31/26	@ NSH	L 4–5	L -1.5	O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Minnesota Wild

Overall3–0–0W–L–TPuck Line3–0–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
11/6/26	vs SJ	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 6.5
11/3/26	@ PHI	W 4–2	W -1.5	O 5.5
11/1/26	@ WSH	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Lightning and Wild
	Statistic
28.7 (28.7)	Shots	28.9 (29.3)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

LightningAndrei VasilevskiyExpected

WildCalvin PickardConfirmed

Player props1 market

Total Saves24.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%

Lineup context

Projected lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

First line

CBrayden Point
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
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LWJake Guentzel
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%
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RWNikita Kucherov
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
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DJ.J. Moser

Minnesota Wild

First line

CJoel Eriksson Ek
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
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LWKirill Kaprizov
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%
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RWMatt Boldy
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%
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DQuinn Hughes
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Assists0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14540.8%
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DJonas Brodin

Player availability

Injury report

Tampa Bay Lightning

CYanni GourdeHipInjured Reserve
Gourde (hip) will miss Thursday's game against Chicago, but he might be available at some point during the upcoming four-game road trip, per Benjamin Pierce of the Lightning's official site.
Updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 12:51 PM EST

Minnesota Wild

CMichael McCarronUndisclosedDay-To-Day
McCarron (undisclosed) didn't finish Friday's 4-1 win over the Sharks and is questionable for Saturday's game against Tampa Bay, according to Michael Russo of The Athletic.
Updated: Nov 6, 2026 at 11:47 PM EST
DBrock FaberSkullInjured Reserve
Faber (skull) skated with his teammates for the first time Thursday, Joe Smith of The Athletic reports.
Updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 1:09 PM EST
GFilip GustavssonHipInjured Reserve
Gustavsson (hip) will travel with the Wild during the team's upcoming three-game road trip, per Joe Smith of The Athletic.
Updated: Nov 5, 2026 at 1:51 PM EST