NBA matchup

11/09/20268:30 PMToyota CenterHouston, TX

Nuggets5 – 3vsRockets7 – 3

Sharp side

Model value

Model trendHouston Rockets games: +3.34 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Houston Rockets went 7–3 (70.0%) this season, for an estimated profit of 3.34 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

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Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Denver Nuggets	B+	C+	B
Houston Rockets	B	A	B+

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More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Toyota Center in Houston

Nuggets vs. Rockets preview — Can Houston turn stops into a lead?Houston erased a 19-point deficit in Phoenix. Now its defense faces a Denver offense with Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray both questionable.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

DEN+276+9.5 (-118)

HOU-344-9.5 (-103)

Total 219.5Over -112Under -108

Recent form

Last 3 games

Denver Nuggets

Overall2–1–0W–L–TATS2–1–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/7/26	vs IND	W 114–102	W -8.5	U 229.5
11/4/26	vs TOR	W 128–109	W -4.5	O 230.5
11/2/26	vs POR	L 110–118	L -4.5	U 231.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Rockets

Overall1–2–0W–L–TATS1–2–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/7/26	@ PHX	L 99–102	L -6.5	U 223.5
11/4/26	vs MIN	L 107–117	L -7.5	O 219.5
11/2/26	vs BOS	W 109–93	W -4.5	U 215.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Nuggets and Rockets
	Statistic
41.6 (42.6)	Field Goals Made	44.6 (42.2)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Denver Nuggets

Expected Starters

PGJamal MurrayDay-To-Day
Murray is questionable for Monday's game against the Rockets due to a left shin contusion.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:43 PM EST
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
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SGChristian BraunDay-To-Day
Braun (calf/illness) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against Houston.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:46 PM EST
SFCameron JohnsonDay-To-Day
Johnson (lower body) is questionable for Monday's game against Houston.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:51 PM EST
PFAaron GordonDay-To-Day
Gordon (lower body injury management) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Rockets.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:42 PM EST
CNikola JokicDay-To-Day
Jokic (elbow) is listed as questionable for Monday's game in Houston.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:36 PM EST
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
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Houston Rockets

Expected Starters

PGFred VanVleet
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-10451.0%Under-12655.8%
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SGAmen Thompson
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists3.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
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SFKevin Durant
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10648.5%
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PFJabari Smith Jr.
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-10451.0%Under-12755.9%
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CAlperen Sengun
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists6.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
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Relevant Bench

GMarcus Smart
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18264.5%
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FTari Eason
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+14640.7%Under-19466.0%
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Player availability

Injury report

Denver Nuggets

GJulian StrawtherKneeOut
Strawther (knee) was diagnosed with a left knee sprain Friday and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Vinny Benedetto of The Denver Gazette reports.
Updated: Oct 16, 2026 at 8:52 PM EDT
FAaron GordonLower BodyDay-To-Day
Gordon (lower body injury management) is listed as questionable for Monday's game against the Rockets.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:42 PM EST
FCameron JohnsonLower BodyDay-To-Day
Johnson (lower body) is questionable for Monday's game against Houston.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:51 PM EST

Houston Rockets

CClint CapelaAnkleOut
Capela (ankle) is listed as out for Monday's game against Denver.
Updated: Nov 8, 2026 at 5:56 PM EST
CSteven AdamsCalfOut
Head coach Ime Udoka said Wednesday that Adams (calf) is still without a timetable to return and will be evaluated on a "weekly basis," Varun Shankar of the Houston Chronicle reports.
Updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 7:21 PM EST