Sacramento’s only win this season came with Zach LaVine making five of nine three-point attempts against Dallas. If you’re backing a Kings upset of Miami, his shooting offers a contribution to consider without asking for another five makes.
These Kings parlay picks pair that idea with two different Miami performances: Davion Mitchell collecting points and assists, and Bam Adebayo staying below a combined scoring, rebounding and assist total. Side & Support Parlay Plays looks at LaVine in Sacramento wins and the Heat players in Miami losses, then compares each with his results across all games.
Kings parlay picks: three options around an upset
LaVine’s row covers his recorded Sacramento appearances in the 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular seasons, including ten Kings wins. Mitchell and Adebayo use this season’s nine Miami appearances, with only six losses apiece; their weaker longer records are discussed below. Individual DraftKings prices were observed Sunday morning, November 8, and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All appearances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine Over 2.5 three-pointers 2025–26 & 2026–27 regular season |
−113 | 80.0% 8 of 10 SAC wins |
47.9% 23 of 48 SAC appearances |
| Davion Mitchell 21+ points + assists 2026–27 regular season |
−119 | 100.0% 6 of 6 MIA losses |
88.9% 8 of 9 MIA appearances |
| Bam Adebayo Under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists 2026–27 regular season |
−105 | 100.0% 6 of 6 MIA losses |
66.7% 6 of 9 MIA appearances |
Zach LaVine: over 2.5 three-pointers
LaVine has made at least three threes in eight of his ten recorded Kings wins across the two regular seasons. The Dallas win supplied five in just 28 minutes. That gives the idea a clear example, although one Sacramento win this season can’t tell us much on its own.
Over 2.5 threes cost −113, slightly lighter than the equivalent three-or-more offer at −115. Two makes cost −317. That lower offer covered the same eight winning games and 34 of 48 appearances overall, eleven more than the three-make target. You’d pay much more for cushion that didn’t recover either winning miss.
Four threes paid +197, but it covered only five of the ten Kings wins and twelve of 48 appearances overall. Both winning misses at the three-make level last season were one-for-six shooting nights, against Denver and Minnesota. More than thirty minutes and six attempts were available in each; the shots still didn’t fall.
The latest game is the immediate challenge. LaVine went one for six against San Antonio in 35 minutes. He also had a zero-for-three night in 21 minutes against Memphis. He’s made at least three in seven of nine games this season, but six of those seven landed on exactly three. There’s often been little room beyond the required makes.
Davion Mitchell: 21+ points + assists
Mitchell’s latest Miami loss brought 22 points and eight assists against Golden State. Earlier defeats showed two different routes to the same combined request: eleven points and eleven assists against Minnesota, then 21 points and two assists against Dallas. He doesn’t need to supply both a big scoring night and a big passing night.
Twenty-one combined points and assists cost −119. Twenty cost −148 and covered the same six Heat losses and all nine appearances, adding his twenty in the win over Atlanta. Twenty-five paid +197 but covered only two of the six defeats and three of nine appearances overall. Several losing-game totals were just 22 or 23, so moving up leaves behind plenty of useful contributions.
The twenty against Atlanta is his only miss at 21 this season. He also finished on exactly 21 in the win over the Clippers, despite playing 43 minutes. The extra point isn’t automatic, and neither reaching this total nor missing it determines Miami’s result.
This is a current-season case. Mitchell’s playing time has averaged 35 minutes across his nine recorded appearances, compared with 28.6 across seventy Miami appearances last regular season. His combined points and assists have risen from 15.8 per game to 24.3. That helps explain using the new season, while keeping its small sample in view.
The longer record is much weaker: 21 combined points and assists covered only fourteen of 39 Miami losses and nineteen of 79 games across the two regular seasons. His separate play-in loss to Charlotte last spring brought 28 points and six assists in 48 minutes. There are productive losing nights beyond this season, but the older record doesn’t establish a dependable pattern.
Bam Adebayo: under 32.5 points + rebounds + assists
Adebayo’s latest Miami loss ended on 28: eighteen points, ten rebounds and no assists against Golden State. Against the Lakers, sixteen points, nine boards and four assists made 29. Those games show the under holding up through 33 and 31 minutes, without needing him to leave early.
Under 32.5 combined points, rebounds and assists cost −105. A straight under 19.5 points was −111 and covered five of Miami’s six losses and five of nine appearances overall this season. The combined under covered all six, including his twenty-point game against Charlotte: eight rebounds and four assists took that total to 32, just beneath this line.
That Charlotte performance leaves almost no cushion. At the other end, Adebayo’s three Miami wins this season produced combined totals of 36, 39 and 49. The 49 came against the Clippers immediately before his latest game, with 35 points, ten rebounds and four assists. He has recently shown enough scoring and supporting production to beat this under comfortably.
Across the two regular seasons, under 32.5 covered thirty of 42 Miami losses and 46 of 82 games overall. Earlier defeats included 44 against San Antonio and 57 against Houston. His separate eleven-minute play-in appearance against Charlotte last spring finished on ten, but it doesn’t strengthen the case for a normal workload tonight.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo now alongside him in Miami’s frontcourt, this season gives a different look at Adebayo’s contribution. Six losses is still a small record. The under fits a Kings-win view through that recent evidence, without assuming Sacramento can prevent every productive Adebayo game.
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Room for different kinds of contribution
LaVine’s option asks Sacramento’s shooter to make three from outside. The Miami choices leave room for Mitchell to contribute while Adebayo has a more restrained all-around night. A Kings upset doesn’t require every Heat player to be quiet, and you can choose the contribution that fits your view without taking all three.
The individual records don’t establish the chance or price of a combination. Follow the live Heat–Kings matchup and explore more NBA parlay ideas.
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