Zach LaVine made five threes on nine attempts in Sacramento’s win at Dallas, still the Kings’ only win this season. With Oklahoma City visiting Sunday, a repeat of that outside shooting would give Sacramento a way to keep pace.
If you’re backing the Kings to win, start with whether they can get LaVine clean looks. Oklahoma City’s recent losses also offer two different angles on its guards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can score without piling up assists, while Jared McCain has been getting enough minutes to contribute on the boards.
Player props for a Kings win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine Over 2.5 made threes |
−137 | 80.0% 8 of 10 SAC wins |
49.0% 25 of 51 games |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 assists |
−139 | 100.0% 5 of 5 OKC losses |
76.9% 10 of 13 games |
| Jared McCain Over 5.5 rebounds + assists |
−125 | 100.0% 5 of 5 OKC losses |
61.5% 8 of 13 games |
Zach LaVine over 2.5 made threes
Watch where the Thunder’s help comes from when Darius Acuff Jr. drives. If a defender leaves LaVine to close the lane, Sacramento can get the ball back out to him before the closeout. He can clear this line even on a modest scoring night. He had three threes on six attempts and 12 points against Portland on Friday.
Nine of the 10 Sacramento wins in the table come from last season. This year LaVine has made at least three threes in nine of 12 games overall, so he’s reached the line in plenty of losses too. The shot quality still matters. He took six threes against San Antonio and made only one.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 5.5 assists
Gilgeous-Alexander scored 40 points with five assists against the Clippers. Sacramento can keep his assist count down by staying attached to shooters and making him finish against the first defender. That leaves room for a big scoring game even if the Kings win.
He stayed under in all five Oklahoma City losses. Friday was the closest call. If Sacramento sends a second defender and leaves shooters free, six assists can come quickly. He showed he can score and create in the same game with 43 points and eight assists at Cleveland.
Jared McCain over 5.5 rebounds + assists
McCain started and played at least 30 minutes in all three games of Oklahoma City’s current skid. On Tuesday at Portland he had three rebounds and three assists. The following night he got there on six rebounds alone. If he gets another long shift, long rebounds and a few trips running the offense give him two ways to contribute.
Three of his five hits in Thunder losses landed at exactly six, so a shorter shift can matter. The NBA’s 9 a.m. ET report listed fellow guard Ajay Mitchell as questionable with a sprained ankle. Check how Oklahoma City sets its backcourt before relying on another 30-minute night for McCain.
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What to watch early at Golden 1 Center
LaVine’s threes fit a Sacramento win built on spacing and quick passes out of the lane. If your case depends on how the Kings defend Oklahoma City, watch whether they can stay with the shooters when Gilgeous-Alexander drives. That’s the possession that matters for his assist under.
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