Tampa Bay beat Detroit in March without a point from Brandon Hagel. He’s had a point in every Lightning win he’s played in this season, but that March game is a reminder that a Tampa Bay win can come from another line.
DraftKings listed the Lightning at −265. If you’re backing Tampa Bay, these two props ask different things of the forwards: a goal or assist from Hagel, or a night without an assist from Detroit’s Viktor Arvidsson.
Two ways to read the scoring matchup
Hagel’s record covers two seasons of Tampa Bay appearances. Arvidsson’s covers all 15 of his games with Detroit. For each player, the table compares the team result that fits the premise with the same player’s full sample.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel 1+ point 2025–26 and 2026–27 Tampa Bay appearances |
−210 | 81.5% (44/54) Lightning wins |
60.4% (55/91) |
| Viktor Arvidsson Under 0.5 assists All 15 Detroit appearances |
−225 | 100.0% (8/8) Red Wings losses |
60.0% (9/15) |
Brandon Hagel 1+ point (−210)
Hagel recorded a point in 44 of 54 Tampa Bay wins and 55 of 91 appearances overall. He has a point in all eight of his winning appearances this season and nine of 13 games overall. In the win over Winnipeg, he contributed a goal and two assists in 21:47.
He’s projected on a line with Anthony Cirelli and Gage Goncalves. A goal or an assist is enough here, but regular minutes can still produce neither. He played 20:13 without a point in Saturday’s loss to Nashville, and last March he went scoreless in 17:07 even as Tampa Bay beat Detroit.
At −210, the individual quote is slightly cheaper than Arvidsson’s assist under. If you expect his line to contribute, the point market gives you a way to back him without picking who finishes the play.
Viktor Arvidsson under 0.5 assists (−225)
Arvidsson went without an assist in all eight Detroit losses and nine of 15 appearances overall. Seattle is a useful example. He scored in 20:49 and still would have cleared the assist under. A market that required him to finish without a point would have missed.
He’s projected on Detroit’s top line with Emmitt Finnie and Alex DeBrincat. He picked up an assist against Florida in his latest game and had two against Vancouver on October 22. Both were Detroit wins. They’re a reminder that his line can create chances even if you expect Tampa Bay to win.
At −225, eight losses is a small sample to lean on. This choice fits a Tampa Bay-win view that leaves room for Arvidsson to shoot or score while limiting his setups. One pass that leads to a goal is enough to beat it.
Decide which scoring role fits your view
Hagel has the longer same-club record and can score or assist. Arvidsson’s market limits a narrower part of his production, with a shorter record and a slightly steeper price. If you think Detroit’s top line will create chances, weigh that against the higher price and shorter history before choosing the assist under.
Follow the live Red Wings–Lightning matchup for updates or browse the NHL article archive for more hockey coverage.
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