Utah has the stronger start, but does it have the steadier goaltending to justify a sizable favorite’s price? Pittsburgh has lost the first three games of its road trip, while the Mammoth are 6-3-0. Yet both teams are coming off 6-2 losses, and the recent performances of Karel Vejmelka and Arturs Silovs make this more interesting than the records alone suggest.
Utah’s advantage comes with a price
The current DraftKings moneyline has Utah at -185 and Pittsburgh at +154. The Mammoth have won six of nine games, and before Saturday’s loss to Edmonton they had beaten Buffalo, Toronto and Edmonton in succession. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has allowed 16 goals while scoring seven across its three straight road losses.
The Penguins’ latest setback was a 6-2 loss at Vegas on Saturday. Sidney Crosby and Ville Koivunen scored, with Tommy Novak assisting on both goals, but Pittsburgh fell behind 3-0 in the first period. The immediate challenge is to keep the game manageable rather than ask its forwards to erase another big deficit.
Our grades still give Pittsburgh’s attack a B+, compared with a B for Utah’s. The larger separation is at the other end: we rate Utah’s team defense a B and Pittsburgh’s a C. That gives Utah a stronger all-around profile, but Pittsburgh’s scoring personnel remain a meaningful counterweight to the favorite’s price.
The goalies complicate the 6.5-goal total
The recent goalie performances help explain the concern. Vejmelka allowed five goals on 17 shots before being replaced in Utah’s loss to Edmonton on Saturday. Across his last five appearances this season, he has an .857 save percentage. Silovs has an .875 save percentage over his own last five appearances, allowing five goals in three of those outings—but also recording a shutout and a one-goal performance.
If Vejmelka and Silovs get the starts, those recent results strengthen the case for scoring at the posted total of 6.5. Neither five-game sample offers much reassurance about consistent saves, though Silovs’ better outings show how sharply that picture can change from game to game.
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Our shot and power-play projections add an important counterweight: we expect roughly 28 shots per team and about three power-play opportunities apiece. Those figures are close to the supplied historical averages for both teams, so the scoring case at 6.5 rests more on recent goaltending struggles than on a projected surge in shooting volume or power-play opportunities. A steadier night in net could change that outlook even if the opportunities arrive as expected.
Pittsburgh’s games have gone over their posted totals in six of nine games this season, producing a historical profit of 2.37 units from flat one-unit over bets. That fits the recent road-trip picture: the Penguins have allowed enough goals to produce high-scoring games even while their own scoring has been uneven. Those returns came at the prices available for those games, not today’s line.
What matters most
Utah’s better record and stronger defensive evaluation make its favorite status understandable. Paying -185 is a tougher proposition when its recent goaltending has been uneven and Pittsburgh’s attack still grades well. The Penguins’ route to a competitive game starts with avoiding another early hole; Utah’s strongest case rests on turning its more balanced team profile into a cleaner defensive performance. If Vejmelka starts, his ability to rebound from Saturday matters to both the favorite’s price and a 6.5-goal total that our opportunity projections don’t suggest will be driven by a surge in volume.
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