Toronto looks stronger in our matchup grades, but its recent results make this a tricky favorite to trust. The Maple Leafs have lost three straight heading into Monday’s game against the San Jose Sharks, and our projections suggest only a small gap in shooting volume. The useful question is whether Toronto’s advantages are substantial enough to justify its price—or whether San Jose has enough going for it to challenge the favorite.
Toronto’s edge comes with a price
DraftKings’ current moneyline prices Toronto at -142 and San Jose at +120. Our grades favor the Maple Leafs in both attack and team defense: Toronto earns a B- in each, compared with a C for San Jose’s attack and a D for its defense. That gives the favorite a credible case, though Toronto’s recent play hasn’t consistently matched that assessment.
The Leafs have won three of their last nine games this season. They lost 4-1 to the Islanders on Saturday, following consecutive 5-4 defeats. San Jose has split its last eight games this season, so neither team arrives with an especially convincing run of results.
There’s also a useful distinction between winning often and rewarding bettors. Over the past year, San Jose won 43 of 85 games, yet backing the Sharks outright for one unit each game produced a historical profit of 17.09 units. Those past prices differ from Monday’s, but the record is a good reminder that a team doesn’t need a dominant win rate to have rewarded its backers.
San Jose has a route through Celebrini
Macklin Celebrini supplied a goal and two assists in the Sharks’ 4-3 shootout loss at Detroit on Saturday. San Jose also scored twice on the power play. That gives the Sharks something concrete to build on rather than simply hoping Toronto’s losing streak continues.
Our power-play opportunity projections put San Jose at about three chances, compared with roughly two to three for Toronto. That’s a modest difference, but another productive special-teams night offers the Sharks a route to challenge the favorite. We project about 26 shots for San Jose and 27 for Toronto—not the kind of shooting-volume separation that suggests an overwhelming Toronto advantage.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Sharks vs. Maple Leafs picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
What matters at a 6.5-goal total
Recent goaltending performances give the scoring discussion a different look from those modest shot projections. If Yaroslav Askarov starts for San Jose, he enters with an .848 save percentage across his five most recent appearances this season. Sergei Bobrovsky, if he gets Toronto’s start, has an .892 save percentage over his last five. Both allowed at least three goals in every appearance in those samples, making their recent struggles relevant at the posted total of 6.5.
There are meaningful counterweights. San Jose has scored three goals or fewer in six of its last eight games this season, and Toronto managed only one on Saturday. The Leafs did generate 29 shots in that loss, with Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin stopping 28. Toronto’s attack wasn’t entirely quiet, but our shooting projections don’t point to a high-volume barrage from either team. At 6.5, the tension is between vulnerable recent goaltending and a shooting outlook that leaves less room for inefficient finishing.
The matchup in perspective
Toronto’s stronger team evaluations give it a credible case as the favorite, but the narrow projected shot gap and its recent defensive results make the price worth scrutinizing. San Jose’s clearest route is another influential night from Celebrini and useful power-play production. Toronto needs a more reliable performance in its own end, because a projected edge of roughly one shot offers little cushion if those recent defensive problems continue. That makes the quality of Toronto’s response—not simply its stronger grades—the key to assessing this favorite.
We break down every matchup
For sharp picks, current odds and matchup ratings across the league’s games, take a look at our NHL betting board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.