Houston beat Oklahoma City in February while Isaiah Hartenstein handed out 11 assists. A Rockets win doesn’t require keeping his passing quiet. That game is the conspicuous exception to an otherwise strong record for his under 3.5 assists in Thunder losses.
Starting with a hypothetical Houston win over Oklahoma City, these Rockets parlay picks put that under beside Amen Thompson reaching 12 points and Kevin Durant recording three assists. The choices ask for different contributions: Thompson’s own scoring, Durant’s passes turning into baskets, or Hartenstein staying below four assists despite an uncertain Thunder rotation.
Rockets parlay picks: scoring, passing and an opposing under
The Rockets are 5–1 and the Thunder are 4–1 after both lost their latest game. This season supplies five Houston wins and just one Oklahoma City loss. The table covers completed regular-season and playoff appearances from October 1, 2025 through October 30, 2026, using each player’s current club and matching dates and participation rules for the all-game comparison. These historical rates aren’t probabilities for Saturday.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All current-team games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson 12+ points |
−442 | 89.3% 50 of 56 Rockets wins |
87.9% 80 of 91 appearances |
| Kevin Durant 3+ assists |
−185 | 88.7% 47 of 53 Rockets wins |
81.2% 69 of 85 appearances |
| Isaiah Hartenstein Under 3.5 assists |
−169 | 92.3% 12 of 13 Thunder losses |
68.7% 46 of 67 appearances |
Amen Thompson: 12+ points at −442
Thompson has scored 16, 20, 17, 15, 23 and 15 in his six starts this season. All six cleared 12. The lower target leaves some room beneath his current scoring, though his longer Houston history includes winning games where he fell short.
Twelve points cleared in 50 of his 56 Rockets winning appearances, compared with 80 of 91 games overall. The rates are close. This is a modest contribution that often accompanied a Houston win, without a large separation from his all-game record.
Fifteen points was −184 and covered 42 of those 56 wins, eight fewer than twelve. One difference came in March’s win over New Orleans, when Thompson scored 14 in 35 minutes. Twelve would have cleared; fifteen would have missed despite a substantial workload.
The higher target has cleared in all six games this season, including his exactly 15 points in 28 minutes against Atlanta. That recent consistency makes fifteen tempting. It also leaves no room for a one-point dip in a performance like that Atlanta game.
Ten points was −910 and covered 51 of the 56 wins, only one more than twelve. The extra room brings a much smaller payout. Twelve at −442 sits between paying heavily for ten and asking for the additional scoring at fifteen.
His latest winning miss at twelve came against Orlando in February: nine points in 28 minutes in a 113–108 win. He shot 3-for-5 and made three free throws. Low shot volume, rather than simply a bad shooting percentage, kept him below the target.
His current average is about 35 minutes, down from roughly 38 in the older Houston sample. He still has a substantial starting role, but the lower workload belongs beside the strong recent scoring. Twelve offers room beneath his six current totals at a short price; it doesn’t make double figures inevitable in every Rockets win.
Kevin Durant: 3+ assists at −185
Durant’s latest game shows why scoring and passing targets need separate judgments. He scored 28 points in 37 minutes against Dallas but recorded one assist. Three assists would have missed even though he had a productive scoring night.
He has recorded three, five, two, three, four and one assist this season. Four of six games cleared three, including four of Houston’s five wins. The winning miss came in Atlanta, where he finished with 22 points and two assists in 37 minutes.
The longer record is 47 clears in 53 Rockets winning appearances, versus 69 in 85 games overall. That difference describes the historical results; it doesn’t establish that a Houston win causes more assists. Teammates still have to finish the chances that become official assists.
Four assists was +130 and covered 36 of the 53 wins, eleven fewer than three. This season’s opening Dallas win and the later home win over Atlanta both finished on exactly three. Durant played 37 and 30 minutes in those games. Three would have cleared each time; four would have missed.
That is a meaningful change in the contribution you need, in exchange for the better payout. Three at −185 allows those ordinary passing nights to count. It still missed his two-assist Atlanta win, so winning and playing heavy minutes do not settle the outcome.
His current average of about 35 minutes is close to roughly 36 in the older Houston sample. The Rockets list Alperen Sengun as day-to-day after he missed Friday’s game. Check the lineup around Durant rather than assume those missing minutes or touches will become extra assists for him.
Three assists fits a view where Durant contributes as a passer as well as a scorer. The price is less demanding than Thompson’s lower points target, with a less consistent current record and a different dependence on teammate finishing.
Isaiah Hartenstein: under 3.5 assists at −169
This under allows zero, one, two or three assists. It cleared in 12 of Hartenstein’s 13 Thunder losing appearances, compared with 46 of 67 games overall. Thirteen losses is a much smaller sample than the Rockets players’ winning histories, with only one loss coming this season.
The exception deserves particular attention here. In February’s 112–106 loss to Houston, Hartenstein recorded 11 assists in 25 minutes. His four points didn’t prevent a large passing total, and a Rockets win didn’t keep him under. The earlier October win over Houston also brought five assists, another miss for this line.
His five current totals are three, two, one, three and three. All five stayed under 3.5. His latest game, the 120–96 loss to Dallas, brought three assists in 26 minutes. One more would have changed the result of the prop.
He also finished with three in 26 minutes in the preceding win over Phoenix, alongside 15 points and 13 rebounds. A busy game in other categories can coexist with this under. It is an assist limit, rather than a requirement that Hartenstein play poorly across the board.
His current average of about 24 minutes is close to his older Oklahoma City sample, but that average is not a dependable forecast for Saturday. Chet Holmgren’s new injury report came after Oklahoma City’s latest game; he and Cason Wallace are out alongside Jalen Williams and other absentees. Those five recent games don’t show Hartenstein’s role with this changed supporting cast. A different frontcourt workload or passing role could make the older appearances less comparable.
The −169 price and the allowance for three assists make this a distinct option alongside Houston. Balance that against the smaller losing-game sample, two recent games right on three, and the 11-assist loss to this very opponent. The 12-of-13 record cannot resolve those concerns on its own.
Choose the contribution you expect Houston to support
For Thompson, compare the eight extra winning clears at twelve with the bigger payout at fifteen. For Durant, three kept eleven winning clears that four would have lost. Hartenstein’s under calls for a separate judgment about the changed Thunder lineup; its 12-of-13 record doesn’t answer that question. The separate rates don’t establish a combined chance of clearing.
Prices can change. Compare current offers on the Rockets–Thunder matchup page, or browse more of our NBA coverage.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.