Buffalo won its last road game with Tage Thompson firing eight shots on goal and scoring twice. He didn’t have an assist. If you’re backing the Sabres against Columbus, that’s a useful reason to compare his shooting and passing props separately.
These Sabres parlay picks start with Buffalo winning, then look at Thompson’s production in Sabres victories and Matthew Knies’ shooting in Blue Jackets losses. Each option gets an all-game comparison, too, so you can see how much the team result changes the picture. There are only seven Buffalo wins and seven Columbus losses in these early-season records.
Sabres parlay picks: two ways to use Thompson
The table covers the current 2026–27 regular season, using appearances with each player’s current club. Thompson’s two props give you different routes; you don’t need to take both.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson Over 3.5 shots on goal |
−120 | 85.7% 6 of 7 BUF wins |
66.7% 10 of 15 appearances |
| Tage Thompson Over 0.5 assists |
+120 | 85.7% 6 of 7 BUF wins |
46.7% 7 of 15 appearances |
| Matthew Knies Under 1.5 shots on goal |
−130 | 85.7% 6 of 7 CBJ losses |
64.3% 9 of 14 appearances |
Tage Thompson: over 3.5 shots on goal
Thompson has been getting plenty of pucks on net in Buffalo’s recent wins: six against San Jose, four against Anaheim and eight against Los Angeles. Four is enough for this line, although that Anaheim game shows how narrow the margin can be even on a night when he scores a hat trick.
His one miss in a Sabres win came against Florida, when he scored on his only shot. That’s the tradeoff with a shots bet: a productive scorer doesn’t always need much volume. More recently, he managed only two shots in the loss to Ottawa, after a zero-shot night against Washington earlier in the schedule.
At −120, this is the shooting route for a Buffalo-win scenario, with a higher all-game hit rate than his assist over. The longer Buffalo record gives a different view, though: across last season and this one, he reached four shots in 25 of 57 wins and 47 of 96 appearances overall. The current six-of-seven winning pattern is promising recent evidence, rather than a habit that has held up over both seasons.
Tage Thompson: over 0.5 assists
An assist pays +120, compared with −120 for the shots over. You’re asking Thompson to help set up a goal instead of putting four pucks on net himself. He had an assist in the San Jose win and two against Anaheim, and he added one in the latest loss to Ottawa.
The Los Angeles win is the clearest reason to treat this as a separate choice. Thompson scored twice and drove the shooting, but neither goal helped an assist bet. Conversely, he had an assist in the Florida win despite recording just one shot. Backing Buffalo doesn’t settle which version of his production you’ll get.
He has recorded an assist in fewer than half of his 15 appearances this season, despite doing so in six of Buffalo’s seven wins. That contrast makes it interesting for this particular premise, but it also shows the dependence on a small winning sample. Across the previous and current seasons with Buffalo, he had an assist in 30 of 57 wins and 39 of 96 appearances overall. The bigger payout comes with a substantially less consistent overall record; it doesn’t establish a better bet.
Matthew Knies: under 1.5 shots on goal
Knies gives you a way to look at the other side of the matchup. He has stayed at one shot or fewer in six of Columbus’ seven losses, including one against Carolina and none in the earlier loss to Dallas. His last four games have each finished below this line, even as the Blue Jackets have won their last two.
That quieter shooting hasn’t meant disappearing from the offense. In Thursday’s win over Dallas, Knies had an assist and one shot in 19:18 on the ice. One shot stayed below the shooting line, while that assist ruled out a no-point night. At −130, it also costs less than the −140 price on his under-0.5 points offer.
Columbus’ expected first-line left wing can still get involved against Buffalo: he had four shots and two goals in the teams’ October 1 meeting, a Blue Jackets win. His three-shot game in the loss to Toronto is the current exception to the losing-game pattern. Those are meaningful challenges to a line that permits only one shot, especially with just 14 Columbus appearances behind the comparison. The longer current-club window contains those same 14 games, so it adds no separate season of support.
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Choose the contribution that fits your view
If you expect Thompson to keep generating shots, the volume bet has the stronger all-game record this season. If you prefer the bigger payout on an assist, the recent split between his scoring and passing is worth keeping in mind. Both depend on the same player’s night, and their separate records don’t tell you how often a combination would win.
Knies’ shots under offers a different choice if your Buffalo view includes a quieter Columbus attack, while still allowing him to contribute an assist. Compare the lines with the live Blue Jackets–Sabres matchup, or explore more NHL parlay ideas.
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