St. Louis has the stronger defensive outlook, but can it generate enough scoring to make that advantage count against San Jose? The Blues enter Thursday’s matchup as a modest home favorite despite losing their last two games. Our analysis gives them an edge in keeping opponents in check, while the Sharks bring the better attacking grade—a useful contrast in a matchup where we project nearly identical shooting volume.
A defensive edge, with a scoring question
With Joel Hofer in goal, we give St. Louis a B- defensive grade. San Jose, with Yaroslav Askarov in net, gets a D. That’s the clearest separation in our team evaluations and the strongest part of the Blues’ case: we rate them better equipped to limit the damage when the Sharks get their opportunities.
The attacking comparison runs the other way. We grade San Jose’s offense C and St. Louis’ D+, so the Blues don’t pair that defensive advantage with a stronger scoring assessment. The Sharks’ plausible route to an upset is to make their better-rated attack count rather than let St. Louis keep the game tight.
Our shot projections put both teams at roughly 26 shots. That leaves little separation in expected shooting volume and puts the focus on finishing and saves. St. Louis has the better defensive evaluation, but we don’t project a substantial edge in the number of shots it generates.
The latest losses need a little context
San Jose won its first two games before Dallas shut it out 5-0 on Monday. That leaves the Sharks 2-1, but their most recent outing is a sharp reminder that the better attacking grade here doesn’t guarantee steady production.
St. Louis is 1-2 after losing 6-1 at Colorado and 4-2 at Chicago. Tuesday’s score deserves a closer look: Chicago scored twice into an empty net, while Connor McMichael’s late power-play goal briefly brought the Blues within one. St. Louis still lost, but only two of Chicago’s four goals came with Hofer defending the net.
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What the moneyline asks of St. Louis
DraftKings’ current moneyline has the Blues at -142 and the Sharks at +120. That makes St. Louis a modest favorite to win outright. Our defensive grades offer a reason to take the Blues seriously at that price; their weaker attacking grade and nearly even shot projections are the counterweight.
St. Louis’ strongest case is its ability to keep San Jose’s attack in check, not an expectation that it will produce far more shots. The Sharks have the better attacking assessment, even after Monday’s shutout loss, so the Blues still need enough scoring to make their defensive edge count. With little separating the projected shooting volume, finishing and goaltending are the factors that matter most to this matchup.
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