Dallas and Chicago arrive with very different scoring stories: every Stars game this season has finished under its betting total, while six of the Blackhawks’ eight games have gone over. Chicago has also scored nine goals across two straight wins, giving Dallas something to think about beyond its status as the road favorite. The interesting question is how that recent scoring stacks up against Jake Oettinger’s strong start—and what the contrast means at a total of 5.5.
Dallas has the stronger recent goalie numbers
DraftKings’ moneyline odds put Dallas at -198 against Chicago at +164. One strong argument for the Stars is the recent performance of Oettinger, their expected goalie. Across his five most recent appearances this regular season, he stopped 101 of 107 shots for a .944 save percentage, including two shutouts.
The comparison with Spencer Knight, Chicago’s expected goalie, also shows a difference in workload. Knight faced 155 shots over his five most recent appearances, compared with Oettinger’s 107, and posted an .890 save percentage. He did make 31 saves in Chicago’s 4-3 overtime win over Winnipeg on Thursday, a useful counterweight to the broader five-game comparison.
The Stars haven’t turned their low-scoring games into a winning record, either. They’re 3-3-1, and their latest win required a shootout to beat Colorado 3-2 on Wednesday. There’s support for Dallas being favored, but a substantial road price still asks more of the Stars than simply keeping things close.
A 5.5 total puts Chicago’s attack in focus
Our historical betting data captures the contrast neatly: Dallas games are 7-for-7 to the under this season, returning 6.16 units from flat one-unit bets. Chicago games are 6-for-8 to the over, returning 3.25 units on the same basis. Those results came against each game’s own total and price—not a uniform 5.5 threshold.
Chicago’s two straight wins offer a concrete reason not to lean on Dallas’ streak alone. The Blackhawks beat Pittsburgh 5-3 before edging Winnipeg, and Connor Bedard contributed a power-play goal and an assist against the Jets. Our power-play projections put both teams at roughly three opportunities, giving special teams a meaningful place in the scoring outlook.
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We also project about 26 Dallas shots and 24 Chicago shots—a modest volume gap, rather than a barrage from either side. At the posted total of 5.5, Oettinger’s recent stopping form pulls against Chicago’s improving scoring results, while Knight’s five-game numbers leave room for Dallas to contribute. The power-play opportunities matter because neither team is projected to generate overwhelming shot volume; how productive those chances become is still an open question.
Dallas also has a forward-depth concern: Oskar Back has a broken finger and will miss four to six weeks, Robert Tiffin of NHL.com reported, citing coach Glen Gulutzan.
The key to reading this matchup
Dallas’ strongest case is its recent goaltending, not a large projected shot advantage. Chicago’s response is an attack that has produced nine goals across two wins, with Bedard contributing in the latest one. That makes Chicago’s ability to produce against Oettinger the most useful test of its scoring surge. For the moneyline, Dallas’ stopping advantage has to translate into a win to justify the road price; for the 5.5 total, Chicago’s recent offense and the opportunities against Knight keep the scoring picture from being a simple extension of the Stars’ under streak.
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