Montreal is a modest home favorite against Buffalo, but the Canadiens don’t have a clear advantage across the matchup. Our projections give the Sabres a small edge in shooting volume, while both expected goalies bring uneven recent results into the rematch. That makes Montreal’s moneyline price and the 6.5-goal total closely connected: how much confidence should bettors place in either team’s ability to keep the other quiet?
A close first meeting, with scoring on both sides
The Canadiens edged Buffalo 4-3 in a shootout on Tuesday. Both teams have since played another high-scoring game: Buffalo rallied from two goals down in the third period to beat Toronto 5-4 in overtime Thursday, with Jack Quinn scoring twice and Owen Power delivering the winner.
Montreal’s follow-up went the other way. Josh Anderson scored twice, but the Canadiens lost 5-4 at Washington on Wednesday. Both teams have recently found enough scoring to stay competitive without consistently keeping opponents off the board.
What does Montreal’s favorite price buy?
DraftKings has Montreal’s moneyline at -142, with Buffalo at +120. Our shot projections give Buffalo about 28 shots on goal to Montreal’s 26—a small volume advantage for the underdog, rather than a picture of Montreal dominating the shooting.
The expected goalie matchup adds another reason to look closely at that price. Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 35 of 38 shots in Tuesday’s meeting. Across his five most recent appearances this season, though, his save percentage is .870. Montreal’s Jakub Dobes has an .841 save percentage over his four most recent appearances this season and allowed five goals on 23 shots at Washington. Neither goalie is confirmed to start, so this is worth checking again before puck drop.
Luukkonen’s performance in the first meeting gives Buffalo a plausible route to another competitive game, but his five-appearance sample keeps this from becoming a simple goaltending-advantage argument. The Sabres will also be without defenseman Rasmus Dahlin, who is out with an upper-body injury.
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How the scoring evidence fits 6.5
Five of Montreal’s seven games this season have gone over their posted totals. That fits the recent high-scoring picture, although the Canadiens also beat Detroit 1-0. Buffalo’s recent results show a similar range: the Sabres scored five goals against both Florida and Toronto but managed just one combined against Dallas and Utah.
At 6.5, the useful tension is between vulnerable recent goaltending and fairly modest projected shooting volume. We project roughly three power-play opportunities for each team, with little separation there. The goalie results give bettors a concrete reason to examine the scoring market, but the opportunity projections don’t point to an overwhelming offensive barrage. The low-scoring counterexamples also make it risky to assume the latest results will simply repeat.
The takeaway
Montreal’s favorite status deserves a closer look rather than an automatic endorsement: Buffalo has a narrow projected shot edge and pushed the Canadiens to a shootout earlier this week. The counterweight is that Luukkonen’s strong performance in that meeting sits alongside a much shakier recent save rate. With only a small projected shooting gap, Montreal’s price asks for confidence that the Canadiens can overcome that volume disadvantage, while the 6.5 total puts both goalies’ recent struggles in focus. A steadier performance in net would weaken the high-scoring case without requiring a major change in shooting volume.
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