St. Louis is favored against Winnipeg on Tuesday, but the Blues have something to straighten out first: they’ve allowed five goals in each of their past two games. The Jets arrive after a narrow loss to Carolina and with Josh Morrissey on injured reserve. It’s a test of whether St. Louis can turn its stronger defensive assessment in our analysis into a more convincing performance on the ice.
What supports the Blues’ favorite status?
St. Louis is a -148 favorite in the current DraftKings moneyline. Our grades give the Blues the stronger defensive evaluation, B- compared with Winnipeg’s C+, but neither attack grades especially well: the Jets receive a C- and the Blues a D+. The clearest case for St. Louis is a more controlled game, rather than an expectation that its forwards will overwhelm Winnipeg.
Recent results challenge that case. The Blues lost 5-4 at Minnesota before falling 5-2 at Nashville on Saturday. There were bright spots in that latest loss: Jimmy Snuggerud scored on the power play, and Mason McTavish extended his point streak to six games, with four goals and four assists during that stretch. St. Louis has players producing, even while the team has struggled to keep the other end tidy.
Winnipeg’s most recent defeat was tighter. The Jets held two leads before Carolina beat them 3-2 on Saturday, with two Hurricanes goals coming on the power play. Mark Scheifele scored and finished that game with points in five straight appearances. That gives Winnipeg a concrete source of scoring form to build around, although Morrissey's placement on injured reserve Monday leaves the Jets without a key defenseman.
A 5.5-goal total meets conflicting evidence
The total is 5.5, and the teams’ early-season betting results point in different directions. Six of St. Louis’ eight games have gone over their posted totals, while five of Winnipeg’s eight have stayed under. The Blues’ last four games have all gone over, but Winnipeg’s results are a useful counterweight to treating that streak as the whole story. The thresholds matter, too: six of the Jets’ eight games carried a 6.5 total, while seven of the Blues’ eight were priced at 5.5. Winnipeg’s under record therefore isn’t a direct comparison with tonight’s lower total.
Our shooting projections suggest fairly similar volume—roughly 27 shots for Winnipeg and 26 for St. Louis—with about three power-play opportunities apiece. That’s not a forecast of either side piling up shots. It does make special teams worth watching at this total, particularly after Carolina punished Winnipeg twice with the man advantage and Snuggerud supplied a power-play goal for St. Louis.
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The expected goalie matchup also looks closer than the teams’ latest scorelines might suggest. Stuart Skinner and Joel Hofer have each stopped about 90.6% of shots across their five most recent appearances this season. Both allowed at least four goals in their latest outing, however: Skinner gave up four against Chicago, while Hofer conceded five at Minnesota. Those small samples offer neither a clear goaltending advantage nor a clean reason to dismiss the recent high-scoring Blues games.
The key is whether St. Louis can tighten up
St. Louis’ stronger defensive grade gives its favorite status some support, but consecutive five-goal concessions make a steadier performance the key test at this price. Winnipeg brings Scheifele’s recent production and no substantial shot-volume deficit in our projections. At 5.5, the Blues’ scoring streak and the teams’ recent special-teams results deserve weight; Winnipeg’s under history is less reassuring once its higher previous totals are considered. The most useful question is whether St. Louis can contain the Jets while finding enough offense from an attack we don’t rate highly—not whether its defensive grade alone makes the favorite convincing.
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