NFL matchup

09/13/20261:00 PMReliant StadiumHouston, TX

Bills5 – 1vsTexans2 – 5

Sharp side

🏠 Texans +1.5

Model value

Model trendBuffalo Bills games: +2.76 units on model side bets during the current streak

Model side bets in games featuring Buffalo Bills are on a 3-bet win streak, for an estimated profit of 2.76 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

↓ Under 44.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Buffalo Bills	22.3	50.7%
Houston Texans	22.1	49.3%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Buffalo Bills	A+	B	A-
Houston Texans	C+	A+	B+

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Reliant Stadium in Houston

Bills vs. Texans Preview: Buffalo’s Ground Game Meets Houston’s DefenseBuffalo visits Houston as a slight favorite in a Week 1 matchup shaped by the Bills’ projected rushing advantage, the Texans’ pass rush and a spread with little room for error.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-112-1.5 (-105)

HOU-108+1.5 (-115)

Total 44.5Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-118-1.0 (-108)

HOU-102+1.0 (-110)

Total 44.5Over -110Under -108

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-121-1.5 (-108)

HOU+100+1.5 (-113)

Total 44.5Over -113Under -108

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-118-1.0 (-109)

HOU+100+1.0 (-110)

Total 44.5Over -109Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-115-1.0 (-110)

HOU-105+1.0 (-110)

Total 44.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-116-1.5 (-104)

HOU-102+1.5 (-118)

Total 44.5Over -110Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-120-2.0 (-105)

HOU+100+2.0 (-115)

Total 44.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

BUF-125-1.5 (-105)

HOU+105+1.5 (-115)

Total 44.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Buffalo Bills

Overall7–3–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/17/26	@ DEN	L 30–33	L +1.5	O 45.5
1/11/26	@ JAX	W 27–24	W +1.5	U 51.5
1/4/26	vs NYJ	W 35–8	W -13.5	O 39.5
12/28/25	vs PHI	L 12–13	L -3.5	U 45.5
12/21/25	@ CLE	W 23–20	L -10.5	O 41.5
12/14/25	@ NE	W 35–31	W -2.5	O 49.5
12/7/25	vs CIN	W 39–34	L -6	O 54.5
11/30/25	@ PIT	W 26–7	W -3	U 44.5
11/20/25	@ HOU	L 19–23	L -4.5	U 44.5
11/16/25	vs TB	W 44–32	W -6.5	O 44.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Texans

Overall9–1–0W–L–TATS6–4–0W–L–PO/U4–5–0O–U–P · 9/10 graded

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/18/26	@ NE	L 16–28	L +3	O 40.5
1/12/26	@ PIT	W 30–6	W -3	U 38.5
1/4/26	vs IND	W 38–30	L -9.5	O 37.5
12/27/25	@ LAC	W 20–16	W +1.5	U 40.5
12/21/25	vs LV	W 23–21	L -14.5	O 39.5
12/14/25	vs ARI	W 40–20	W -10.5	O 42.5
12/7/25	@ KC	W 20–10	W +4.5	U 41.5
11/30/25	@ IND	W 20–16	W +3	—
11/20/25	vs BUF	W 23–19	W +4.5	U 44.5
11/16/25	@ TEN	W 16–13	L -5.5	U 37.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Bills and Texans
	Statistic
353.6 (371.6)	Total Yards	318.1 (330.2)
206.0 (212.3)	Passing Yards	216.9 (221.8)
20.8 (20.2)	Pass Completions	21.3 (21.4)
30.1 (29.1)	Pass Attempts	35.7 (35.2)
147.5 (159.3)	Rushing Yards	101.2 (108.3)
31.0 (32.1)	Rushing Attempts	27.1 (27.8)
21.0 (21.8)	First Downs	18.1 (19.0)