NFL matchup

09/13/20261:00 PMPaycor StadiumCincinnati, OH

Buccaneers2 – 5vsBengals4 – 2

Sharp side

✈️ Buccaneers +3.5

Model value

Model trendTampa Bay Buccaneers games: +1.69 units on model side bets in the past month

Model side bets in games featuring Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 3–1 (75.0%) in the past month, for an estimated profit of 1.69 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

↑ Over 50.5

Model value

Model trendCincinnati Bengals games: +1.61 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring Cincinnati Bengals went 4–2 (66.7%) this season, for an estimated profit of 1.61 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24.4	41.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	26.9	58.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	C	B-	C
Cincinnati Bengals	A-	C	B

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, with identifying marks abstracted.

Buccaneers vs. Bengals Preview: Breaking Down the 3.5-Point SpreadCincinnati is favored by 3.5 points against Tampa Bay in a Week 1 matchup shaped by strong offenses, defensive questions and contrasting paths to production.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+170+3.5 (-102)

CIN-205-3.5 (-118)

Total 50.5Over -108Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+160+3.5 (-105)

CIN-190-3.5 (-105)

Total 50.5Over -108Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+170+4.0 (-112)

CIN-210-4.0 (-109)

Total 50.5Over -108Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+170+3.5 (-106)

CIN-205-3.5 (-111)

Total 50.5Over -109Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+165+3.5 (-110)

CIN-190-3.5 (-110)

Total 50.5Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+160+3.5 (-108)

CIN-190-3.5 (-112)

Total 50.5Over -110Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+175+4.0 (-110)

CIN-210-4.0 (-110)

Total 50.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

TB+160+3.5 (-110)

CIN-190-3.5 (-110)

Total 50.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS1–9–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/3/26	vs CAR	W 16–14	L -3	U 42.5
12/28/25	@ MIA	L 17–20	L -5.5	U 44.5
12/21/25	@ CAR	L 20–23	L -3	U 44.5
12/11/25	vs ATL	L 28–29	L -6	O 43.5
12/7/25	vs NO	L 20–24	L -7.5	O 41.5
11/30/25	vs ARI	W 20–17	L -4.5	U 45.5
11/23/25	@ LAR	L 7–34	L +7.5	U 50.5
11/16/25	@ BUF	L 32–44	L +6.5	O 44.5
11/9/25	vs NE	L 23–28	L -2.5	O 48.5
10/26/25	@ NO	W 23–3	W -3.5	U 45.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Cincinnati Bengals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
1/4/26	vs CLE	L 18–20	L -8.5	U 47.5
12/28/25	vs ARI	W 37–14	W -7	U 53.5
12/21/25	@ MIA	W 45–21	W -3.5	O 48.5
12/14/25	vs BAL	L 0–24	L +2.5	U 51.5
12/7/25	@ BUF	L 34–39	W +6	O 54.5
11/27/25	@ BAL	W 32–14	W +7	U 52.5
11/23/25	vs NE	L 20–26	W +7.5	U 50.5
11/16/25	@ PIT	L 12–34	L +5.5	U 47.5
11/2/25	vs CHI	L 42–47	L +2.5	O 51.5
10/26/25	vs NYJ	L 38–39	L -5.5	O 43.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Buccaneers and Bengals
	Statistic
335.5 (324.2)	Total Yards	352.3 (340.9)
219.3 (208.8)	Passing Yards	254.4 (244.4)
20.8 (20.9)	Pass Completions	25.2 (24.9)
32.2 (32.9)	Pass Attempts	38.9 (38.6)
116.1 (115.4)	Rushing Yards	98.0 (96.6)
28.4 (28.1)	Rushing Attempts	22.5 (22.4)
20.3 (19.8)	First Downs	22.0 (21.3)