NBA matchup
10/24/20266:00 PMSpectrum CenterCharlotte, NC

Heat1 – 4vsHornets3 – 2

Sharp side
✈️ Heat -4.5
Model value
Model trendMiami Heat games: +0.63 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Miami Heat went 3–2 (60.0%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.63 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
↓ Under 227.5
Model value
Model trendCharlotte Hornets games: +4.52 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring Charlotte Hornets went 5–0 (100.0%) this season, for an estimated profit of 4.52 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Miami Heat121.593.5%
Charlotte Hornets101.56.5%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamOffenseDefenseOverall
Miami HeatA-CB
Charlotte HornetsFBC-
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Spectrum Center in Charlotte, with identifying marks abstracted.Heat vs. Hornets preview: Can Miami’s defense make its favorite status count?Miami is favored despite allowing 259 points in its first two games. Charlotte's cold shooting and projected three-point production make this a revealing test for both teams.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-170-4.5 (-105)
CHA+142+4.5 (-115)
Total 227.5Over -110Under -110
BetMGM
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-170-4.5 (-105)
CHA+140+4.5 (-115)
Total 227.5Over -110Under -110
BetRivers
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-180-4.5 (-114)
CHA+148+4.5 (-108)
Total 228.5Over -114Under -108
Caesars
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-190-4.5 (-110)
CHA+158+4.5 (-110)
Total 228.0Over -105Under -115
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-180-4.5 (-110)
CHA+155+4.5 (-110)
Total 227.5Over -110Under -110
FanDuel
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-162-3.5 (-118)
CHA+136+3.5 (-104)
Total 227.5Over -110Under -108
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-175-4.5 (-110)
CHA+145+4.5 (-110)
Total 228.5Over +100Under -115
Kalshi
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-170—
CHA+163—
Total —Over —Under —
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylineSpread
MIA-175-4.5 (-110)
CHA+150+4.5 (-110)
Total 227.5Over -105Under -115
Recent form

Last 10 games

Miami Heat

Overall4–6–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/23/26vs DETL 111–128L +2.5O 235.5
10/21/26vs MINL 106–131L -1.5U 240.5
4/14/26@ CHAL 126–127W +5.5O 228.5
4/12/26vs ATLW 143–117W -10.5O 239.5
4/10/26@ WSHW 140–117W -15.5O 243.5
4/9/26@ TORL 114–128L +4.5O 236.5
4/7/26@ TORL 95–121L +2.5U 240.5
4/4/26vs WSHW 152–136L -18.5O 245.5
4/1/26vs BOSL 129–147L +4.5O 229.5
3/30/26vs PHIW 119–109W +2.5U 242.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Charlotte Hornets

Overall6–4–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultSpreadTotal
10/23/26vs ATLL 81–128L +2.5U 226.5
10/21/26@ BKNW 110–103W -1.5U 220.5
4/17/26@ ORLL 90–121L -2.5U 218.5
4/14/26vs MIAW 127–126L -5.5O 228.5
4/12/26@ NYW 110–96L -14.5U 217.5
4/10/26vs DETL 100–118L -6.5U 225.5
4/7/26@ BOSL 102–113L +4.5U 221.5
4/5/26@ MINW 122–108W -4.5O 226.5
4/3/26vs INDW 129–108W -15.5O 234.5
4/2/26vs PHXW 127–107W -5.5O 227.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Heat and Hornets
Statistic
43.9 (43.6)Field Goals Made35.6 (40.7)
13.8 (13.7)Three-Pointers Made13.5 (16.3)
19.8 (19.7)Free Throws Made16.9 (17.5)
49.1 (46.2)Rebounds43.9 (46.0)
29.2 (28.9)Assists22.1 (26.1)
8.6 (8.6)Steals6.5 (7.0)
4.6 (4.3)Blocks4.4 (4.6)
13.0 (13.0)Turnovers15.6 (14.5)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Miami Heat
Expected Starters
  • PGDavion Mitchell
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17363.4%
    Total Assists6.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds9.5Over-10250.5%Under-12956.3%
    Total Points9.5Over-12555.6%Under-10250.5%
    Total Points and Assists16.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists19.5Over-11653.7%Under-11353.1%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-13056.5%Under-10150.2%
    Total Steals0.5Over-21968.7%Under+16338.0%
  • SGKlay Thompson
    Player props5 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
    Total Points10.5Over-10751.7%Under-11954.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists13.5Over-12455.4%Under-10651.5%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over+12744.1%Under-16862.7%
  • SFAndrew Wiggins
    Player props5 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-16462.1%Under+12444.6%
    Total Points12.5Over-12655.8%Under-10150.2%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists19.5Over-12655.8%Under-10451.0%
    Total Rebounds4.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
  • PFGiannis Antetokounmpo
    Player props10 markets
    Total Assists6.5Over+10848.1%Under-14258.7%
    Total Assists and Rebounds17.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Points27.5Over-11854.1%Under-10851.9%
    Total Points and Assists34.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
    Total Points and Rebounds38.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists45.5Over-11553.5%Under-11453.3%
    Total Rebounds10.5Over-13557.4%Under+10349.3%
    Total Steals1.5Over+18035.7%Under-24370.8%
    Total Steals and Blocks1.5Over-15861.2%Under+11945.7%
  • CBam Adebayo
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14859.7%
    Total Assists3.5Over-11152.6%Under-11854.1%
    Total Assists and Rebounds12.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
    Total Points16.5Over-12755.9%Under-10150.2%
    Total Points and Assists20.5Over-11954.3%Under-11052.4%
    Total Points and Rebounds26.5Over-11353.1%Under-11653.7%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists30.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Rebounds9.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
    Total Steals1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Relevant Bench
  • FBobby Portis
    Player props4 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+13342.9%Under-17663.8%
    Total Points9.5Over-10952.2%Under-11753.9%
    Total Points and Rebounds14.5Over-12455.4%Under-10651.5%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over+10648.5%Under-13958.2%
  • FPelle Larsson
    Player props7 markets
    Total Assists2.5Over-14559.2%Under+11047.6%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-14358.8%Under+10848.1%
    Total Points9.5Over-11252.8%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Assists12.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points and Rebounds12.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists15.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-17063.0%Under+12943.7%
Charlotte Hornets
Expected Starters
  • PGCoby White
  • SGKon Knueppel
  • SFBrandon Miller
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals3.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%
    Total Assists3.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
    Total Assists and Rebounds8.5Over-11854.1%Under-11152.6%
    Total Points22.5Over-10551.2%Under-12154.8%
    Total Points and Assists25.5Over-12054.5%Under-10952.2%
    Total Points and Rebounds27.5Over-11854.1%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists31.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
    Total Rebounds5.5Over+10648.5%Under-14058.3%
    Total Steals0.5Over-15761.1%Under+11845.9%
  • PFNaz Reid
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-15660.9%Under+11845.9%
    Total Assists3.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds10.5Over-13256.9%Under+10050.0%
    Total Points17.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%
    Total Points and Assists20.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Points and Rebounds25.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists28.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Rebounds7.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
  • CMoussa Diabate
    Player props8 markets
    Total Assists1.5Over-18965.4%Under+14241.3%
    Total Assists and Rebounds11.5Over-11753.9%Under-11252.8%
    Total Blocks0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10947.8%
    Total Points9.5Over-10150.2%Under-12655.8%
    Total Points and Assists11.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points and Rebounds18.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists20.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
    Total Rebounds9.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Relevant Bench
  • GDennis Schroder
    Player props9 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16862.7%
    Total Assists5.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds9.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
    Total Points13.5Over-11653.7%Under-11052.4%
    Total Points and Assists19.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-10651.5%Under-12455.4%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists22.5Over-12655.8%Under-10451.0%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over+10548.8%Under-13858.0%
    Total Steals0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
  • GGrayson Allen
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-15961.4%Under+12145.2%
    Total Assists3.5Over+12843.9%Under-16962.8%
    Total Assists and Rebounds5.5Over-14258.7%Under+10848.1%
    Total Points14.5Over-10651.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points and Assists17.5Over-11653.7%Under-11453.3%
    Total Points and Rebounds17.5Over-10751.7%Under-12355.2%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists20.5Over-11353.1%Under-11653.7%
    Total Rebounds2.5Over-13858.0%Under+10548.8%
  • FSion James
    Player props8 markets
    Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
    Total Assists2.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
    Total Assists and Rebounds6.5Over+10449.0%Under-13757.8%
    Total Points7.5Over-10651.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points and Assists9.5Over-12755.9%Under-10350.7%
    Total Points and Rebounds11.5Over-10350.7%Under-12755.9%
    Total Points, Rebounds, and Assists13.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
    Total Rebounds3.5Over-12755.9%Under-10350.7%


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